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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-03-31T19:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-31T19:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19621/-1
CME Note: Source is the M9.6-class flare from AR2975 peaking at 2022-03-31T18:35Z from N13W48. Associated eruption seen through the opening of field lines in STEREO A EUVI 195 from behind the west limb around 2022-03-31T19:15Z. Post eruptive darkening and an EUV wave is seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2022-03-31T18:31Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-04T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19625/1
Model Inputs:
2022-03-31T19:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=48.0, Lat.=-3.0, Speed=576.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2022-04-01T00:54Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
NOTE: A very cursory glancing blow detected by looking at the predicted solar wind timeline at L1. 

Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-04-04T03:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-04-04T02:14Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220401_005400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 60.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2022-04-01T14:12Z

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